The QBO and weak external forcing by solar activity: A three dimensional model study

A better understanding is attempted of the physical mechanisms leading to significant correlations between oscillations in the lower and middle stratosphere and solar variability associated with the sun's rotation. A global 3-d mechanistic model of the middle atmosphere is employed to investigate the effects of minor artificially induced perturbations. The aim is to explore the physical mechanisms of the dynamical response especially of the stratosphere to weak external forcing as it may result from UV flux changes due to solar rotation. First results of numerical experiments dealing about the external forcing of the middle atmosphere by solar activity were presented elsewhere. Different numerical studies regarding the excitation and propagation of weak perturbations have been continued since then. The model calculations presented are made to investigate the influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the dynamical response of the middle atmosphere to weak perturbations by employing different initial wind fields which represent the west and east phase of the QBO

Climate-Ozone Connections

Climate change will affect the evolution of the ozone layer through changes in transport, chemical composition, and temperature. In turn, changes to the ozone layer will affect climate through radiative processes, and consequential changes in temperature gradients will affect atmospheric dynamics. Therefore, climate change and the evolution of the ozone layer are coupled. Understanding all of the processes involved is made more complex by the fact that many of the interactions are nonlinear

Planetary waves in a coupled chemistry-climate model: analysis techniques and comparison with reanalysis data

International audienceThis paper presents several analysis techniques relating to large-scale atmospheric waves. Such analysis tools allow the extraction of planetary waves from reanalysis or model datasets, and can contribute to a detailed insight into the forcing, propagation, and vertical structure of planetary waves, and their dynamic impact on the atmosphere. The different tools presented here use time series of space Fourier coefficients in order to extract transient and stationary wave parts by zonal wavenumbers, and to quantify their dynamic effect in the form of sensible heat and momentum fluxes. In this work, they have been applied to model results from the coupled chemistry-climate model ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM (E39/C) (Hein et al., 2001) and to the ERA-15 reanalysis dataset from ECMWF. We show that E39/C qualitatively matches the variance distribution and vertical structure of transient waves from reanalysis data; quantitative differences can be traced back to the horizontal model resolution and the modelled zonal winds. The modelled polar vortex during Northern Hemisphere winter has previously been shown to be colder and more stable than observed (Hein et al., 2001; Schnadt et al., 2002; a possible explanation is that in the model experiment, a reduced heat flux by long transient waves at high latitudes disturbs and warms the polar vortex less than ERA-15 suggests, thereby leading to an overestimated stationary wavenumber 1 in E39/C. The results show that the tools used are well suited to investigate and estimate the impact of various dynamic processes related to large-scale waves

Technical Note: A new global database of trace gases and aerosols from multiple sources of high vertical resolution measurements

A new database of trace gases and aerosols with global coverage, derived from high vertical resolution profile measurements, has been assembled as a collection of binary data files; hereafter referred to as the "Binary DataBase of Profiles" (BDBP). Version 1.0 of the BDBP, described here, includes measurements from different satellite- (HALOE, POAM II and III, SAGE I and II) and ground-based measurement systems (ozonesondes). In addition to the primary product of ozone, secondary measurements of other trace gases, aerosol extinction, and temperature are included. All data are subjected to very strict quality control and for every measurement a percentage error on the measurement is included. To facilitate analyses, each measurement is added to 3 different instances (3 different grids) of the database where measurements are indexed by: (1) geographic latitude, longitude, altitude (in 1 km steps) and time, (2) geographic latitude, longitude, pressure (at levels ~1 km apart) and time, (3) equivalent latitude, potential temperature (8 levels from 300 K to 650 K) and time. <br><br> In contrast to existing zonal mean databases, by including a wider range of measurement sources (both satellite and ozonesondes), the BDBP is sufficiently dense to permit calculation of changes in ozone by latitude, longitude and altitude. In addition, by including other trace gases such as water vapour, this database can be used for comprehensive radiative transfer calculations. By providing the original measurements rather than derived monthly means, the BDBP is applicable to a wider range of applications than databases containing only monthly mean data. Monthly mean zonal mean ozone concentrations calculated from the BDBP are compared with the database of Randel and Wu, which has been used in many earlier analyses. As opposed to that database which is generated from regression model fits, the BDBP uses the original (quality controlled) measurements with no smoothing applied in any way and as a result displays higher natural variability

Trends and variability in stratospheric mixing: 1979–2005

Changes in climate are likely to drive changes in stratospheric mixing with associated implications for changes in transport of ozone from tropical source regions to higher latitudes, transport of water vapour and source gas degradation products from the tropical tropopause layer into the mid-latitude lower stratosphere, and changes in the meridional distribution of long-lived trace gases. To diagnose long-term changes in stratospheric mixing, global monthly fields of Lyapunov exponents were calculated on the 450 K, 550 K, and 650 K isentropic surfaces by applying a trajectory model to wind fields from NCEP/NCAR reanalyses over the period 1979 to 2005. Potential underlying geophysical drivers of trends and variability in these mixing fields were investigated by applying a least squares regression model, which included basis functions for a mean annual cycle, seasonally dependent linear trends, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), the solar cycle, and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), to zonal mean time series of the Lyapunov exponents. <br><br> Long-term positive trends in mixing are apparent over southern middle to high latitudes at 450 K through most of the year, while negative trends over southern high latitudes are apparent at 650 K from May to August. Wintertime negative trends in mixing over northern mid-latitudes are apparent at 550 K and 650 K. Over low latitudes, within 40° of the equator, the QBO exerts a strong influence on mixing at all three analysis levels. This QBO influence is strongly modulated by the annual cycle and shows a phase shift across the subtropical mixing barrier. Solar cycle and ENSO influences on mixing are generally not significant. The diagnosed long-term changes in mixing should aid the interpretation of trends in stratospheric trace gases

Validation of water vapour transport in the tropical tropopause region in coupled Chemistry Climate Models

International audienceIn this study backward trajectories from the tropical lower stratosphere were calculated for the Northern Hemisphere (NH) winters 1995?1996, 1997?1998 (El Niño) and 1998?1999 (La Niña) and summers 1996, 1997 and 1999 using both ERA-40 reanalysis data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) data. The calculated trajectories were analyzed to determine the distribution of points where individual air masses encounter the minimum temperature and thus minimum water vapour mixing ratio during their ascent through the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) into the stratosphere. The geographical distribution of these dehydration points and the local conditions there determine the overall water vapour entry into the stratosphere. Results of two CCMs are presented: the ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM (hereafter: E39/C) from the German Aerospace Center (DLR) and the Freie Universität Berlin Climate Middle Atmosphere Model with interactive chemistry (hereafter: FUB-CMAM-CHEM). In the FUB-CMAM-CHEM model the minimum temperatures are overestimated by about 7 K in Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter as well as in NH summer, resulting in too high water vapour entry values compared to ERA-40. However, the geographical distribution of dehydration points is fairly reproduced for NH winter 1995?1996 and 1998?1999 and in all boreal summers. The distribution of dehydration points suggests an influence of the Indian monsoon upon the water vapour transport. The E39/C model displays a temperature bias of about +3 K. Hence, the minimum water vapour mixing ratios are higher relative to ERA-40. The geographical distribution of dehydration points is satisfactory in NH winter 1995?1996 and 1997?1998 with respect to ERA-40. The distribution is not reproduced for the NH winter 1998?1999 (La Niña event) compared to ERA-40. There is excessive mass flux through warm regions e.g. Africa, leading to excessive water vapour flux in the NH winter and summer. The possible influence of the Indian monsoon on the transport is not seen in the boreal summer. Further, the residence times of air parcels in the TTL were derived from the trajectory calculations. The analysis of the residence times reveals that in both CCMs residence times in the TTL are underestimated compared to ERA-40 and the seasonal variation is hardly present

Climatologies of streamer events derived from a transport model and a coupled chemistry-climate model

International audienceStreamers, i.e. finger-like structures, reach from lower into extra-tropical latitudes. They can be detected in N2O or O3 distributions on single lower stratospheric layers in mid-latitudes since they are characterised by high N2O or low O3 values compared to undisturbed mid-latitude values. If irreversible mixing occurs, streamer events significantly contribute to the transfer of tropical air masses to mid-latitudes which is also an exchange of upper tropospheric and stratospheric air. A climatology of streamer events has been established, employing the chemical-transport model KASIMA, which is driven by ECMWF re-analyses (ERA) and operational analyses. For the first time, the seasonal and the geographical distribution of streamer frequencies has been determined on the basis of 9 years of observations. For the current investigation, a meridional gradient criterion has been newly formulated and applied to the N2O distributions calculated with KASIMA. The climatology has been derived by counting all streamer events between 21 and 25 km for the years 1990 to 1998. It has been further used for the validation of a streamer climatology which has been established in the same way employing data of a multi-year simulation with the coupled chemistry-climate model ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM (E39/C). It turned out that both climatologies are qualitatively in fair agreement, in particular in the northern hemisphere, where much higher streamer frequencies are found in winter than in summer. In the southern hemisphere, KASIMA analyses indicate strongest streamer activity in September. E39/C streamer frequencies clearly offers an offset from June to October, pointing to model deficiencies with respect to tropospheric dynamics. KASIMA and E39/C results fairly agree from November to May. Some of the findings give strong indications that the streamer events found in the altitude region between 21 and 25 km are mainly forced from the troposphere and are not directly related to the dynamics of the stratosphere, in particular not to the dynamics of the polar vortex. Sensitivity simulations with E39/C, which represent recent and possible future atmospheric conditions, have been employed to answer the question how climate change would alter streamer frequencies. It is shown that the seasonal cycle does not change but that significant changes occur in months of minimum and maximum streamer frequencies. This could have an impact on mid-latitude distribution of chemical tracers and compounds. The influence of streamers on the mid-latitude ozone budget has been assessed by applying a special E39/C model configuration. The streamer transport of low ozone is simply inhibited by filling up its ozone content according to the surrounding air masses. It shows that the importance of streamers for the ozone budget strongly decreases with altitude. At 15 km streamers lead to a decrease of ozone by 80%, whereas around 25 km it is only 1 to 5% and at mid-latitude tropopause, ozone decreases by 30% (summer) to 50% (winter)

Attribution of ozone changes to dynamical and chemical processes in CCMs and CTMs

Chemistry-climate models (CCMs) are commonly used to simulate the past and future development of Earth's ozone layer. The fully coupled chemistry schemes calculate the chemical production and destruction of ozone interactively and ozone is transported by the simulated atmospheric flow. Due to the complexity of the processes acting on ozone it is not straightforward to disentangle the influence of individual processes on the temporal development of ozone concentrations. A method is introduced here that quantifies the influence of chemistry and transport on ozone concentration changes and that is easily implemented in CCMs and chemistry-transport models (CTMs). In this method, ozone tendencies (i.e. the time rate of change of ozone) are partitioned into a contribution from ozone production and destruction (chemistry) and a contribution from transport of ozone (dynamics). The influence of transport on ozone in a specific region is further divided into export of ozone out of that region and import of ozone from elsewhere into that region. For this purpose, a diagnostic is used that disaggregates the ozone mixing ratio field into 9 separate fields according to in which of 9 predefined regions of the atmosphere the ozone originated. With this diagnostic the ozone mass fluxes between these regions are obtained. Furthermore, this method is used here to attribute long-term changes in ozone to chemistry and transport. The relative change in ozone from one period to another that is due to changes in production or destruction rates, or due to changes in import or export of ozone, are quantified. As such, the diagnostics introduced here can be used to attribute changes in ozone on monthly, interannual and long-term time-scales to the responsible mechanisms. Results from a CCM simulation are shown here as examples, with the main focus of the paper being on introducing the method

Impact of high solar zenith angles on dynamical and chemical processes in a coupled chemistry-climate model

International audienceActinic fluxes at high solar zenith angles (SZAs) are important for atmospheric chemistry, especially under twilight conditions in polar winter and spring. The results of a sensitivity experiment employing the fully coupled 3D chemistry-climate model ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM have been analysed to quantify the impact of SZAs greater than 87.5° on dynamical and chemical processes in the lower stratosphere, in particular their influence on the ozone layer. Although the actinic fluxes at SZAs larger than 87.5° are small, ozone concentrations are significantly affected because daytime photolytic ozone destruction is switched on earlier, especially the conversion of Cl2 and Cl2O2 into ClO at the end of polar night in the lower stratosphere. Comparing climatological mean ozone column values of a simulation considering SZAs up to 93° with those of the sensitivity run with SZAs confined to 87.5° total ozone is reduced by about 20% in the polar Southern Hemisphere, i.e., the ozone hole is "deeper'' if twilight conditions are considered in the model because there is 2?3 weeks more time for ozone destruction. This causes an additional cooling of the polar lower stratosphere (50 hPa) up to ?4 K with obvious consequences for chemical processes. In the Northern Hemisphere the impact of high SZAs cannot be determined on the basis of climatological mean values due to the pronounced dynamic variability of the stratosphere in winter and spring

Will climate change increase ozone depletion from low-energy-electron precipitation?

We investigate the effects of a strengthened stratospheric/mesospheric residual circulation on the transport of nitric oxide (NO) produced by energetic particle precipitation. During periods of high geomagnetic activity, energetic electron precipitation (EEP) is responsible for winter time ozone loss in the polar middle atmosphere between 1 and 6 hPa. However, as climate change is expected to increase the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation including extratropical downwelling, the enhancements of EEP NO<sub>x</sub> concentrations are expected to be transported to lower altitudes in extratropical regions, becoming more significant in the ozone budget. Changes in the mesospheric residual circulation are also considered. We use simulations with the chemistry climate model system EMAC to compare present day effects of EEP NO<sub>x</sub> with expected effects in a climate change scenario for the year 2100. In years of strong geomagnetic activity, similar to that observed in 2003, an additional polar ozone loss of up to 0.4 μmol/mol at 5 hPa is found in the Southern Hemisphere. However, this would be approximately compensated by an ozone enhancement originating from a stronger poleward transport of ozone from lower latitudes caused by a strengthened Brewer-Dobson circulation, as well as by slower photochemical ozone loss reactions in a stratosphere cooled by risen greenhouse gas concentrations. In the Northern Hemisphere the EEP NO<sub>x</sub> effect appears to lose importance due to the different nature of the climate-change induced circulation changes